Tuesday, September 05, 2006

An Oiler Season Preview

Sorry this was so long, I just got into it and had to go deeper.
The Oil have had, shall we say an interesting off season. Here is a season preview (Some of this review was taken from a great Oiler Blog found at http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2006_08_01_lowetide_archive.html

Goaltending:
Dwayne Roloson
Jussi Markannen
Jeff Deslauries
Devan Dubnyk


The backend hasn't looked so solid since the days of Curtis Joseph and Bob Essensa. Roloson proved in the playoffs that when given the opportunity that he can be the man. Jussi proved in the finals that when he needs to he can step up and fill the gaps. They will be a great duo. Expect Roli to get about 55-60 starts with Jussi filling in the rest. BIG upgrade from last years 3 headed circus.

Defence:
Jason Smith
Steve Staios
Dan Tjarnqvist
MA Bergeron
Matt Greene
Jan Hejda
Ladislav Smid
Danny Syvret
Tom Gilbert


Well, if the Oilers are weak anywhere its here. As everyone knows 2 days after the the cup final Chris Pronger asked for a trade. A few weeks later Lowe obliged sending him to the Ducks formerly known as Mighty. You can't just replace a guy like Pronger unless you get Niedermayer or Lidstrom. So we've had to make the best of it. Lowe first went out and got Dan Tjarnqvist. The Shaggy look alike was quietly the most reliable defenseman with the Wild last year. He played 20 minutes a game, played the PP and PK. He will be solid. Jan Hejda was another enigma that was picked up from the Sabers. He is a guy that Lowe has been targeting for awhile and said he is ready for the NHL. He is coming over as a 28 year old rookie so I don't know how much impact he will have, but if Lowe knows anything its defenceman. The final new addition to the blue line sees youngster and former 10th overall pick Ladislav Smid come to us in the Pronger trade. He has been playing in men’s leagues since he was 16 and appears ready for the big time. Those three join a solid, if not unspectacular group of Smith, Staios, Bergeron and Greene. The Oilers are looking to emulate the success that the Sabers and the Hurricanes had with their Generic Brand defenses last year. Look for a trade around January to shore up the backend. I've been hearing the name Brad Stuart ALOT the last month or so. Downgrade from last year, but LOTS of potential.

Center:
Shawn Horcoff
Jarret Stoll
Marty Reasoner
MA Pouliot
Robbie Schremp
Kyle Brodziak
Jonas Almtrop
Patrick Thoresen


Horcoff is a smart player. I'd say it is his main asset and because of it he is very often underrated even by guys like me who like him a lot. He turned a corner with his season in Sweden during the lockout and is more confident in scoring zones. Terrific passer, good speed, can make and take a pass. His willingness to work hard no matter the role and adapt as needed is another strength you don't see on paper. The numbers don't lie though; Shawn Horcoff is a high quality NHL player.

Jarret Stoll is another MacTavish type player whose intangibles include his FO circle % and work ethic. His plus shot was very valuable on the PP (11 goals last year) and there may be another gear. Good passer, still on a learning curve in terms of playing C in the NHL for this fan but he's a good option for some of the softer EV minutes on this team.

He is among the hardest working players this team has ever had. After being traded to the Bruins for stop gap Sergei Samsonov, Marty Reasoner is back. Reasoner is an example of a player who is more than the sum of his parts and having established himself as a terrific player in the secondary categories his natural ability in the offensive zone becomes more of a threat just because of ATOI. Soft hands, good speed, smart player. Marty Reasoner is the one C the Oilers have written in pen on their roster who's likely to have a better year in 06-07 than 05-06.

MA Pouliot was the Hamilton Bulldogs MVP last year and is ready for the NHL. He's a smooth playmaking center. Pouliot has some jam too and is an average skater. Good puck handler and an exceptional passer. Possesses a lot of confidence and impressed the coach in a late season "cup of coffee." However, what sets him apart from others vying for the 4th line role is his defensive awareness. During his 9 games with the team last year it was noted that the coaches were very surprised that he was as developed defensively as he was. If it wasn’t for a case of Mono right before the playoffs started you would have seen Pouliot in the starting lineup, not Rem Murray.

The loss of Peca will be felt come playoff time no doubt, but I believe that Reasoner will be able to pick up the slack left by the defensive center. Add to that Petr Sykora can play center and we are laughing. We are very strong at center, and I will say an upgrade from last year.

Left Wing:
Ryan Smyth
Petr Sykora
Raffi Torres
Ethan Moreau
JF Jaques
Brad Winchester


Ryan Smyth is so famous for his style of play he has become a reference-point himself, a hefty and worthy compliment. Smyth has a much better skill set than when he entered the NHL (or his 39-goal season). A terrific passer and a quality agitator, Smyth plays a smart game and does more good for his team than just on the ice (how on earth can someone like Marc-Antoine Pouliot not bust his butt when Ryan Smyth is working like a bugger?) He is the heart and soul of the Oilers and as Ryan goes the Oilers go.

I put Petr Sykora at left wing for the heck of it. He can play all forward positions and probably will at some point this year. He reminds me of the old Spiderman theme song, the part where they sing "he arrives just in time." He kind of does. Not in an Anson Carter find your way to open ice way by finding space away from the check style, more of a seize the moment by driving to the net way. At least that's the way I've always seen him. He will be the replacement for Pronger on the point of the power play. He was (at least acted) like a VERY happy man at his introduction to the Oiler media, let’s hope that carries over to the season.

I believe Raffi Torres has not scratched the surface. He's still very raw as a player and a challenge to coach MacTavish on all kinds of levels. However his presence on the ice changes the dynamic (as seen in this year's playoffs) both offensively and physically. The man is dangerous. Playing on the 3rd line will put him more in his element and I believe he will be an even better player this year for it. Combining with Fernando and Marty they will make an elite banging line.

Ethan Moreau is a big, tough winger who loves to check his opponent and can chip in a few goals along the way. He's listed as the #4LW here but his ATOI at EV trails only Smyth (Raffi is about even with Ethan) and he spends 3:19 a night on the PK to lead all PK men. Another heart and soul type guy that is essential to the success of any team. He will be used in a babysitting role for the rookies that will ultimately play on the 4th line with him. He is very adept at that role as earlier in his career he took Ales Hemsky under his wing and babysat him for a couple years.

Left wing is one of the deepest positions that the Oilers have this year and they may deal someone from a postion of strength for a defencman, but for now I’ll say that it is an upgrade from last year.

Right Wing:
Ales Hemsky
Joffrey Lupul
Fernando Pisani
Alex Mikhnov
Toby Petersen


Yes. Ales Hemsky has style. Tremendous passer and can deke opposition players out of their jocks almost at will. Amazing skills with the puck, just silly good. Pass first to the extreme (is he in the Oates-Janney category? I'd stop short of putting him in that family). Elite calibre player whose upside is enormous. Impact player, win-an-end-of-season award player. He also just signed a long term 5 year deal with the team and is committed to them.

Joffrey Lupul comes from the pure scorer family of hockey players. There's a subcategory in that family for "quick release" guys best represented by the out-of-this-world Mike Bossy whose hand eye must have been off the charts. I'm not saying Lupul is Mike Bossy, but he has that kind of skill set. Put him with Hemsky and Sykora on the PP and he might score 40 this season.

Fernando Pisani might be the best NHL player no one knows about. It's a stretch because he just received a nice contract and was a finalist for the Conn Smyth trophey but still this is a player who had little on the resume 4 summers ago that would indicate he would be the player we saw this past season. Intelligent player in all areas with good speed and a tremendous work ethic. He has a terrific shot and seems to be in the slot waiting for the pass about as often as 1st liners. Outstanding positional winger. He may even see some time on a higher line.

Alex Mikhnov is a big man (6’5”) with more speed than expected and from appearances soft hands. We don't really know much about his ability to see the ice when his team doesn't have the puck or if he uses his body effectively. But he was on the 1st line for team Russia at the past World Championships and finished the tournament with 4-2-6 in 7 games. Mikhnov is also one of the reason that the Oilers felt it ok to let Sergei Samsonov walk. Time will only tell if he is the real deal.

Toby Petersen Is going to be a strong candidate for 14F this fall due to versatility. Good speed, hard worker, and as with many of these guys he's a little undersized and could probably score 15 goals on a team that found the right role for him. He was very good in the 2 games he saw action in, in the playoffs. He also can play any of the forward positions.

Right Wing is another strong position for the Oilers this year with a lot of scoring talent. We’ll call it an upgrade from last year.

Players In:
Joffrey Lupul
Ladislav Smid
Peter Sykora
Alex Mikhnov
Marty Reasoner
Jan Hejda
Dan Tjarnqvist
Patrick Thoresen

Players Out (Not including Deadline acquisitions):
Ty Conklin (Thank You God!!!)
Chris Pronger
MIke Peca
Todd Harvey
Radek Dvorak
George Laraque (What was Phoenix thinking?)
Igor Ulanov

Possible Starting Line Up
Ryan Smyth - Shawn Horcoff - Ales Hemsky
Peter Sykora - Jarret Stoll - Joffrey Lupul
Raffi Torres - Marty Reasoner - Fernando Pisani
Ethan Moreau - MA Pouliot - Alex Mikhnov
Extras: Petersen, Schremp, Winchester, Jaques
Smith - Bergeron
Staios - Greene
Tjarnqvist - Smid
Extras: Hejda, Syvret

Dwayne Roloson
Jussi Markanen

The Oilers will make the playoffs this year, where is anyone’s guess, I’d say they could be as high as 5th and as low as 8th. But this is still a VERY good team with a minimum of 8 potential 20 goal scorers we are deep. The defence will have to be shored up if the rookies don’t step up but Lowe will take care of that.

2 comments:

Mike and Tor said...

Nice post Rob. It's hard to lose Peca and Pronger, but I'm not upset that George is gone. The Oil are so confident in their ability to make playoffs this year that YC had to be bumped to the end of June for their 2007 conference....we'll see.
Go Oil.

Karyn said...

So, when and how do we start our hockey pool?

Did you write all that? Even the part about Smyth "playing like a bugger"? Not very nice wording.

Thanks, for all the research and the information. I will be sure to refer back to it over time, I'm sure.

Good to start the season with excitement and expectation.